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In a press briefing by the Ministry of Environmental Protection on August 4, 2008, the ministry's Chief Scientist, Dr. Yeshayahu Bar Or, presented a report on Israel's adaptation to global climate change. The report presents climate change trends and forecasts for Israel and the world, anticipated impacts on water, seas and coasts, public health, agriculture, biodiversity and energy in Israel and interim recommendations on requisite steps for adaptation and preparedness in all these areas.
According to the report, Israel has witnessed a warming trend since the beginning of the 1970s, with average temperatures expected to rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2020 and by up to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century compared to 1960 - 1990. Recent years have also witnessed an increase in the frequency and length of extreme weather events, including years which are either exceeding wet or exceedingly dry, with predictions pointing to further increases in the number and frequency of such events (e.g., drought years, floods, heat waves). Precipitation is expected to decrease by 10% by 2020 and by 20% by 2050 while sea level rise in the Mediterranean is predicted to increase by 0.5 meters in 2050 and one meter by 2100.
Dr. Bar-Or stressed that there is strong evidence to suggest that global warming has largely been caused by human activities, but whatever the cause, one thing is certain: adaptation strategies must be formulated and implemented in order to address the dire impacts of climate change which are already evident today and will be further aggravated in the near future. And what's more, these impacts, according to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will be more severe in the Mediterranean Sea area than in other parts of the world.
Impacts of Climate Change on Israel
To address the issue of the impacts of global climate change on Israel, the Ministry of Environmental Protection initiated the preparation of a report on "Israel's Adaption to Global Climate Change." The first part of the report, which addresses the issue of the impacts of climate change on Israel and interim recommendations, was prepared by Ms. Irit Golan-Angleko and Dr. Yeshayahu Bar-Or in cooperation with numerous organizations and individuals.
The report enumerates the anticipated impacts of climate change on each of the following sectors: water, agriculture, seas and coasts, public health, biodiversity, energy and the economy.
Some examples:- Water: Reduction of at least 25% in water availability by the end of the 21st century.
- Coasts and seas: A10 cm rise in sea level may lead to coastline retreat of 2-10 meters and to the loss of 0.4-2 square kilometers of coast every 10 years.
- Public health: Increase in mosquito populations and their distribution may increase the risk of disease.
- Agriculture: Damage to crops due to decrease in water availability and 20% increase in water demand.
- Biodiversity: Migration of Mediterranean species northward and their replacement by desert ecosystems from the Negev.
- Energy: Average long-term increase in electricity demand in the order of 3.2% per year.
At the press conference, Dr. Bar-On also emphasized the high economic costs of inaction. Failure to take the necessary actions to adapt to climate change would cost the economy dearly by the year 2020. Inaction in responding to the water scarcity problem may carry a price tag of 450 million shekels per year, neglecting the impacts of sea level rise may cost the economy 6 billion shekels, flood damages are expected to cost 340 million shekels a year, while damages to agriculture may reach some 3 billion shekels a year.
Towards Adaptation to Climate Change
The long series of impacts detailed in the report necessitate the preparation of a national climate change adaptation plan. To do this, additional data will need to be collected to close knowledge gaps, and new policies will have to be developed which take account of the impacts of climate change, whether water conservation programs, greater energy efficiency, protection of the coastal cliff, reduction of runoff, or biodiversity monitoring.
However, even at this stage, the report outlines some interim recommendations for adaptation, which are expected to be developed into a national plan for adaptation to climate change. The emphasis in the plan will be on reducing economic, social and ecological damages, on the one hand, and exploiting opportunities by developing innovative technologies and exporting know-how, on the other hand.
Thus, along with the risks that Israel faces due to the impacts of climate change come economic and political opportunities to spearhead the development of new technologies to meet the challenges of global climate change. Based on its rich experience in developing cutting-edge technologies in such fields as water treatment, recycling and reuse, desert agriculture and afforestation in the face of water scarcity, these new challenges may well serve as a lever to position Israel as a regional and global center of knowledge on adaptation to climate change.
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